* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 100 99 97 90 81 73 66 61 56 50 47 47 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 95 99 100 99 97 90 81 73 66 61 56 50 47 47 47 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 95 100 99 95 91 82 75 69 61 53 47 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 11 5 2 3 3 10 11 5 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 0 3 2 1 -1 4 3 -6 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 46 45 54 68 327 212 254 221 221 178 201 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.0 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.5 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 131 128 126 128 122 126 126 125 124 120 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 59 58 60 61 59 55 47 44 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 23 23 21 19 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -14 -14 -7 -7 -3 8 37 56 82 85 69 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 23 13 31 40 44 68 23 6 -29 -35 -23 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -6 -6 -2 1 3 7 11 15 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2143 2207 2273 2298 2190 2011 1843 1688 1490 1246 970 653 332 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.6 132.5 133.5 134.5 136.2 137.8 139.3 141.2 143.5 146.1 149.1 152.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 10 12 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 8 4 1 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -15. -21. -27. -31. -34. -37. -39. -40. -42. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 4. 2. -5. -14. -22. -29. -34. -39. -45. -48. -48. -48. -47. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.1 130.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 479.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 -2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.1% 22.5% 18.5% 14.9% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.0% 23.3% 16.2% 14.6% 6.6% 6.7% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 15.3% 11.6% 9.8% 5.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##