* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 62 71 77 81 83 85 88 87 85 82 80 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 62 71 77 81 83 85 88 87 85 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 59 71 82 89 95 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 12 11 10 6 7 9 13 10 18 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 0 -5 -5 -6 -2 -2 -4 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 71 71 59 62 86 67 55 51 65 26 26 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 149 148 148 151 154 150 148 149 152 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 65 65 66 67 68 72 74 75 74 72 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 13 14 17 19 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 64 75 84 92 96 90 87 81 72 65 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 3 -14 -21 7 30 55 99 90 81 16 30 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1025 1099 1183 1261 1347 1516 1598 1701 1838 2007 2203 2424 2655 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.9 9.4 10.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 13.9 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.1 159.4 160.6 161.8 162.9 165.3 167.8 170.5 173.3 176.1 178.8 181.6 184.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 12 13 14 14 15 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 36 46 50 49 37 30 33 41 42 79 75 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 32. 41. 47. 51. 53. 55. 58. 57. 55. 52. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.0 158.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.3% 16.1% 3.8% 2.1% 0.7% 3.9% 19.3% 47.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 4.8% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##