* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 44 47 52 59 65 72 72 73 66 60 49 36 24 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 44 47 52 59 65 72 72 73 66 60 49 36 24 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 43 43 43 46 51 58 64 68 69 64 55 46 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 13 9 15 15 12 6 10 19 30 37 49 52 57 60 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -1 1 -3 -7 -4 -4 -3 -6 -3 1 -2 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 280 295 309 266 279 319 321 352 286 244 252 241 258 260 271 291 307 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.9 27.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 25.2 20.3 18.2 19.4 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 151 154 148 152 154 152 136 126 126 126 111 84 78 81 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 151 154 145 144 143 138 122 113 112 111 98 77 72 74 70 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 54 55 55 58 60 58 58 52 53 56 58 59 64 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 13 13 16 14 14 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -31 -24 -29 -46 -98 -94 -57 -67 -43 -30 14 17 23 -33 -71 -53 200 MB DIV 2 -5 16 16 8 18 27 72 39 62 25 55 21 26 12 -12 -25 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -3 -2 7 10 9 17 8 9 -19 9 25 36 54 85 LAND (KM) 302 130 25 7 31 291 528 666 571 601 684 639 616 454 599 942 1326 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.9 20.0 22.5 25.3 28.3 31.1 33.9 36.4 38.6 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.1 65.7 67.3 68.7 70.1 72.3 73.4 73.5 72.2 69.5 65.9 61.5 56.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 17 17 15 15 15 16 19 20 21 22 22 21 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 39 58 64 46 48 53 57 28 10 4 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 15. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -18. -26. -33. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -1. -2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 27. 27. 28. 21. 15. 4. -9. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 64.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.5% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 3.5% 0.4% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 44 44 47 52 59 65 72 72 73 66 60 49 36 24 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 47 52 59 65 72 72 73 66 60 49 36 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 44 49 56 62 69 69 70 63 57 46 33 21 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 38 43 50 56 63 63 64 57 51 40 27 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT