* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 64 69 71 72 71 69 65 61 55 55 55 56 57 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 64 69 71 72 71 69 65 61 55 55 55 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 60 61 64 67 68 68 64 59 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 15 14 12 7 3 3 2 8 6 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 0 -1 -3 1 1 6 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 3 15 26 40 68 82 247 279 212 222 193 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.3 26.4 25.9 25.8 26.0 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 136 135 133 132 126 126 121 120 124 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 66 64 62 62 60 63 63 64 58 53 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 24 26 27 27 27 27 27 25 24 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 13 0 1 9 -1 -3 -7 9 27 62 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 22 21 33 36 36 56 45 49 22 15 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -6 -5 -4 0 -3 0 2 5 7 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1849 1894 1936 1977 2020 2131 2250 2170 2011 1874 1715 1523 1265 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.9 127.7 128.5 129.4 131.2 132.9 134.5 136.0 137.3 138.8 140.6 143.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 4 5 7 10 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 10. 6. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.3 126.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 25.3% 19.0% 14.1% 9.4% 13.2% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 10.3% 2.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 12.0% 7.1% 5.1% 3.7% 4.7% 4.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##