* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 69 72 77 80 79 77 73 72 68 62 60 60 60 59 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 69 72 77 80 79 77 73 72 68 62 60 60 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 68 71 75 78 76 71 66 59 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 11 12 14 6 4 2 3 6 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 0 1 0 2 6 4 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 2 358 1 21 38 29 270 322 239 270 219 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.0 27.1 26.3 26.4 25.8 25.6 26.1 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 137 138 133 134 126 126 120 118 124 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.1 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 72 70 66 63 61 59 58 60 60 60 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 24 27 29 29 28 27 28 27 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 19 17 7 13 11 10 2 0 20 50 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 54 41 26 22 44 77 73 55 102 44 14 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -6 -5 -2 -1 -1 0 4 4 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1823 1865 1910 1959 1999 2098 2215 2201 2040 1890 1742 1573 1350 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.3 126.2 127.0 127.9 128.8 130.6 132.4 134.2 135.7 137.1 138.5 140.1 142.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 5 5 6 12 7 1 1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 6. 5. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 17. 22. 25. 24. 22. 18. 17. 13. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 125.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 40.0% 28.7% 18.8% 11.8% 17.0% 15.8% 10.3% Logistic: 8.2% 18.2% 6.2% 3.8% 3.9% 1.9% 2.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 20.5% 11.8% 7.6% 5.3% 6.3% 6.0% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##