* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 67 71 75 77 78 77 76 72 69 63 61 61 62 61 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 67 71 75 77 78 77 76 72 69 63 61 61 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 65 68 71 73 72 69 64 60 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 14 11 12 13 7 4 2 2 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -2 -6 -3 2 0 1 2 3 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 354 5 9 20 29 352 338 245 244 267 284 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.3 26.5 26.0 26.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 141 137 135 136 134 132 125 127 122 124 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 71 68 65 63 61 63 66 64 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 25 25 26 27 28 29 28 28 27 27 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 29 30 27 11 10 7 2 1 11 44 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 95 89 59 29 23 51 64 49 99 81 46 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -3 -1 -5 -5 -2 -4 0 5 4 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1779 1808 1840 1880 1924 2005 2122 2243 2170 2035 1878 1692 1472 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.0 125.8 126.6 127.4 129.1 131.0 132.9 134.5 135.8 137.3 139.1 141.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 8 7 7 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 9 6 5 4 6 11 5 1 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. 26. 22. 19. 13. 11. 11. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.4 124.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 39.5% 30.0% 20.3% 12.0% 16.4% 17.0% 12.6% Logistic: 12.3% 31.0% 13.7% 8.7% 5.5% 3.5% 3.5% 2.1% Bayesian: 8.8% 4.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 12.3% 25.1% 15.4% 10.0% 6.1% 6.8% 6.9% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##