* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 38 40 41 41 42 43 45 46 48 51 54 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 38 40 41 41 42 43 45 46 48 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 29 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 9 9 8 8 11 8 6 6 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -1 0 -3 -7 -7 -2 -3 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 120 117 125 127 126 134 170 244 243 249 266 234 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 129 131 134 137 134 131 130 133 132 132 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 66 67 66 70 72 70 67 66 64 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 48 40 35 27 23 30 33 46 52 60 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 1 7 23 17 22 48 63 48 29 55 43 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 0 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 978 939 902 863 825 743 672 609 569 568 599 660 744 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.2 149.7 150.3 150.8 151.9 153.1 154.3 155.7 157.1 158.6 159.9 161.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 6 9 13 16 14 7 6 12 24 14 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 148.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 2.0% 5.9% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##