* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 54 51 45 41 35 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 54 51 45 41 35 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 55 51 47 40 34 29 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 11 7 18 8 10 15 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 0 4 -3 0 -1 0 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 277 251 224 178 167 227 10 347 359 340 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.0 24.3 23.5 23.0 22.3 22.2 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 138 132 123 113 105 96 90 82 81 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 57 55 54 48 46 39 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 13 10 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -33 -30 -33 -40 -31 -48 -54 -62 -60 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -2 7 26 36 -8 -23 -37 -52 -39 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 15 14 12 8 3 4 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 586 596 635 696 737 815 902 993 1086 1180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.3 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.4 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.1 116.3 117.5 118.6 120.4 121.9 123.1 124.2 125.2 126.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 9 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -9. -15. -19. -25. -33. -40. -45. -46. -47. -49. -49. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.5 113.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##