* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 70 70 64 56 49 39 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 70 70 64 56 49 39 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 68 67 63 53 44 37 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 5 9 12 11 11 32 28 23 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 6 8 3 1 0 -5 -12 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 267 271 249 202 196 192 303 340 341 329 291 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 27.8 27.3 26.5 24.8 23.9 23.0 23.0 22.4 22.8 22.8 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 143 138 130 111 101 91 91 85 89 89 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 59 57 53 54 46 44 36 34 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 13 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 -14 -23 -17 -34 -31 -49 -52 -59 -49 -40 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 54 9 -1 10 12 -17 -25 -41 -44 -32 -12 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 9 10 8 11 5 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 548 524 538 562 572 687 760 859 981 1141 1291 1432 1519 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.5 21.2 22.4 23.1 23.6 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.8 113.9 115.1 116.3 118.6 120.5 122.2 123.8 125.6 127.2 128.7 130.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 10 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -6. -9. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. -1. -9. -16. -26. -38. -46. -52. -58. -61. -63. -66. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.2 111.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.18 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 25.5% 19.9% 15.2% 10.6% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.8% 13.3% 11.4% 5.8% 1.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 13.7% 10.5% 7.0% 4.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##