* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 35 41 51 56 59 62 62 55 54 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 35 41 51 56 59 62 62 55 54 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 29 31 33 36 40 43 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 8 7 1 2 2 5 7 3 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -4 -6 -4 2 -1 -3 1 4 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 278 274 296 329 169 124 77 131 147 227 203 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 134 133 128 126 126 125 124 123 124 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 64 64 63 64 70 73 74 74 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 15 16 18 17 17 18 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 16 19 24 29 35 36 34 30 31 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 4 15 50 65 115 111 90 40 41 41 30 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1710 1624 1539 1461 1383 1230 1106 985 898 813 733 648 561 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.5 142.3 143.1 143.8 145.3 146.5 147.7 148.6 149.5 150.4 151.3 152.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 12 10 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 11. 21. 26. 29. 32. 32. 25. 24. 24. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 140.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##