* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 25 24 25 30 32 35 31 33 31 32 34 38 41 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 25 24 25 30 32 35 31 33 31 32 34 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 24 22 20 19 19 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 16 17 18 6 4 4 6 2 1 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -5 -8 -4 -1 0 -1 4 9 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 279 283 285 297 297 266 223 284 210 189 196 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.7 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 133 133 133 130 127 125 126 126 130 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 61 60 60 58 63 69 71 70 68 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 17 16 17 13 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 24 20 15 26 18 34 41 47 31 47 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -9 -11 -1 0 55 65 82 57 42 15 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 0 2 2 2 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2010 1934 1858 1769 1680 1499 1320 1167 1026 898 791 694 607 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.5 138.3 139.0 139.9 140.8 142.6 144.3 145.8 147.2 148.5 149.8 151.3 152.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 8 9 11 7 2 1 1 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -0. 2. 5. 2. 3. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 137.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/26/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.7% 7.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##