* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 34 37 40 44 47 48 51 54 58 62 65 68 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 34 37 40 44 47 48 51 54 58 62 65 68 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 17 22 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -7 -6 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 315 301 288 291 285 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 133 137 138 146 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 132 133 137 138 146 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 38 36 36 38 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -13 -2 -11 -17 -11 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -1 5 1 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -6 -6 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 911 844 694 568 498 377 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.7 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.2 54.0 55.7 57.5 59.4 63.3 67.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 28 26 33 28 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 18. 21. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 52.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/23/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.8% 9.3% 6.8% 6.2% 9.0% 9.6% 13.5% Logistic: 7.8% 14.8% 13.1% 7.3% 2.4% 5.5% 3.5% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.5% 10.1% 8.4% 4.7% 2.8% 5.0% 4.4% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/23/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 34 37 40 44 47 48 51 54 58 62 65 68 68 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 32 35 38 42 45 46 49 52 56 60 63 66 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 33 37 40 41 44 47 51 55 58 61 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 26 30 33 34 37 40 44 48 51 54 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT