* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 44 47 48 51 54 58 62 66 69 73 74 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 44 47 48 51 54 58 62 66 69 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 11 14 15 22 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 9 8 349 330 315 299 298 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 121 123 127 131 137 142 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 120 122 127 131 137 142 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 41 39 38 38 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -5 -6 -16 -3 -20 -33 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 20 11 -8 -2 -4 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 -5 -6 -3 -3 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1087 1021 967 925 888 805 581 518 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.7 47.1 48.4 49.8 51.2 54.3 57.8 61.4 64.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 14 14 17 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 16 6 13 27 27 35 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 17. 18. 21. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 45.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.5% 9.2% 6.8% 6.1% 9.5% 10.7% 15.2% Logistic: 4.8% 15.1% 11.2% 5.7% 2.4% 5.3% 3.5% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 10.2% 7.1% 4.2% 2.9% 5.0% 4.8% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/22/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 41 44 47 48 51 54 58 62 66 69 73 74 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 42 45 46 49 52 56 60 64 67 71 72 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 38 41 42 45 48 52 56 60 63 67 68 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 30 33 34 37 40 44 48 52 55 59 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT