* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 41 45 48 51 54 57 61 66 71 74 77 78 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 41 45 48 51 54 57 61 66 71 74 77 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 13 12 17 18 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -6 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 21 16 7 349 330 299 304 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 123 121 123 129 132 138 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 122 122 119 123 129 132 138 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 41 41 37 37 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 -6 -7 -10 -18 -4 -29 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 25 23 12 -11 0 -4 9 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -2 -3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1165 1096 1025 968 929 869 664 491 426 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 45.7 47.0 48.3 49.6 52.6 55.9 59.3 62.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 16 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 15 17 6 11 30 27 31 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 27. 31. 36. 41. 44. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 44.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.7% 9.4% 7.0% 6.4% 9.5% 10.4% 14.8% Logistic: 4.5% 15.5% 11.4% 7.1% 3.5% 9.3% 5.0% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 10.6% 7.2% 4.7% 3.3% 6.3% 5.2% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/22/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 36 41 45 48 51 54 57 61 66 71 74 77 78 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 39 43 46 49 52 55 59 64 69 72 75 76 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 38 41 44 47 50 54 59 64 67 70 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 30 33 36 39 42 46 51 56 59 62 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT