* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/09/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 24 25 25 21 21 20 21 23 24 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 24 25 25 21 21 20 21 23 24 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 9 13 19 14 23 33 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 3 -1 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 277 281 288 298 299 303 314 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.0 27.5 27.0 26.2 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 146 142 136 141 135 127 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 65 65 62 63 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -1 -8 -9 -15 -14 -13 -26 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -19 -25 -21 7 32 10 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -9 -9 -6 -1 -3 -5 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2277 2394 2497 2388 2215 1893 1585 1290 1011 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.7 130.4 132.1 133.7 135.3 138.3 141.2 144.0 146.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 23 15 9 4 11 9 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 0. 0. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 128.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING