* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 42 37 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 44 43 38 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 43 39 36 32 32 33 37 41 43 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 50 48 40 30 28 23 10 3 12 23 30 30 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -2 2 5 2 -4 2 7 13 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 171 163 164 174 159 134 264 290 274 270 274 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 15.6 15.6 18.1 15.5 14.1 7.2 7.2 7.7 5.8 5.8 4.2 1.8 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 73 71 76 71 70 66 66 64 59 60 62 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 69 67 70 67 66 65 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -48.8 -46.6 -46.0 -46.7 -47.2 -47.1 -47.2 -47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.9 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.7 2.5 2.7 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 41 42 49 54 57 60 65 73 67 65 68 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 40 38 35 30 25 23 20 19 16 12 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 116 133 122 152 167 224 212 167 163 133 143 151 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 63 49 80 67 47 34 27 18 25 21 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -53 -73 -64 -30 -8 -38 -16 8 2 -8 -4 -16 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 23 -12 51 128 85 9 254 569 677 708 837 957 982 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.5 45.7 46.9 48.0 49.0 51.8 55.1 58.6 60.1 59.7 60.2 61.9 63.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.3 64.7 63.2 61.4 59.7 56.1 53.7 52.4 51.4 50.5 48.4 45.1 41.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 16 16 16 17 18 18 13 4 4 8 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 26 CX,CY: 15/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. -29. -33. -36. -39. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. -16. -21. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -17. -24. -29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -17. -25. -28. -34. -42. -47. -49. -47. -46. -44. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -29. -41. -52. -58. -67. -79. -89. -96.-104.-111.-116.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 44.5 66.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 44 43 38 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 48 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 41 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT