* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 54 51 48 35 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 58 49 41 35 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 58 53 41 39 32 31 33 35 39 41 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 40 51 47 39 32 27 10 3 16 27 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 5 3 -2 1 4 0 -1 4 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 199 195 182 169 175 158 147 222 287 283 277 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.1 17.0 13.6 13.9 17.5 13.6 9.1 7.2 7.9 6.9 2.8 2.4 8.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 75 70 70 75 69 67 65 64 62 61 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 71 67 67 70 66 65 64 63 61 N/A N/A 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.0 -49.2 -46.9 -45.9 -46.9 -47.2 -47.8 -47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.5 3.7 4.1 3.6 1.9 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 47 41 40 55 57 55 62 67 66 64 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 38 40 39 30 26 26 24 21 16 11 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 84 128 138 128 169 209 210 178 131 142 153 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 52 37 81 43 57 38 35 33 21 26 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -48 -44 -52 -39 -51 -5 -16 0 -3 5 0 -2 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 157 182 0 -34 -15 5 55 290 573 784 939 1109 1196 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.3 42.0 43.7 45.0 46.2 48.3 51.1 54.3 57.0 59.0 60.2 60.8 61.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.6 67.8 66.0 64.3 62.7 58.8 55.0 51.9 49.8 48.6 46.5 43.4 40.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 20 17 17 17 18 17 12 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 27 CX,CY: 19/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -25. -31. -37. -40. -44. -48. -51. -53. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -13. -12. -10. -12. -15. -19. -24. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -15. -21. -25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 5. -3. -8. -10. -14. -19. -27. -35. -44. -42. -41. -39. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -14. -17. -30. -41. -48. -52. -59. -71. -83. -99.-107.-114.-118.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 40.3 69.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 58 49 41 35 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 55 47 41 34 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 53 47 40 37 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 49 42 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT