* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 85 82 76 65 53 36 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 85 82 76 52 39 30 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 83 80 74 48 38 30 32 33 35 40 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 17 27 38 47 54 37 29 22 11 27 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 3 1 3 -3 4 2 1 15 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 204 202 204 212 191 167 176 181 219 257 262 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 25.0 24.5 23.2 17.9 13.7 14.9 11.0 8.5 7.5 7.4 8.8 9.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 109 105 97 77 70 71 68 67 66 65 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 97 94 88 73 68 68 66 66 65 64 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.8 -49.5 -48.6 -50.3 -52.3 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.5 3.9 4.4 2.0 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 49 52 50 42 51 55 61 59 65 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 27 29 32 38 35 26 26 22 14 10 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 44 39 60 85 119 124 149 133 124 143 93 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 43 60 72 57 68 56 51 53 43 47 31 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -22 -31 -33 -56 -45 -44 -48 -11 -12 -25 49 78 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 8 151 201 161 129 -32 78 11 273 642 1007 1322 1563 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.9 38.4 40.1 41.8 44.9 47.6 50.2 53.0 55.9 58.0 59.4 60.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.0 74.3 72.5 70.5 68.4 64.5 60.6 56.3 51.8 47.1 42.3 37.6 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 22 23 22 20 19 20 20 18 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 19 CX,CY: 12/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -33. -43. -52. -58. -63. -68. -72. -73. -74. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -5. -9. -17. -22. -22. -22. -18. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 11. 1. 1. -5. -18. -24. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -9. -20. -32. -49. -56. -64. -80. -91. -89. -94. -97. -99.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 35.4 76.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 5( 23) 0( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 85 82 76 52 39 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 80 74 50 37 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 72 48 35 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 69 45 32 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 42 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 48 35 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 86 85 76 70 66 53 44 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS