* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 88 87 84 73 64 47 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 88 88 87 84 73 43 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 89 89 86 82 65 39 34 32 31 31 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 17 23 37 51 46 37 32 21 2 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 2 4 -2 3 3 0 13 24 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 245 212 201 205 205 175 176 169 162 48 312 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.4 25.4 24.2 23.5 13.2 16.9 12.6 8.4 7.8 7.0 8.0 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 112 103 99 70 75 69 67 66 65 65 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 116 99 93 89 68 70 67 65 65 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.2 -48.8 -47.7 -48.7 -51.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.1 3.7 4.4 3.4 1.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 6 5 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 49 49 45 45 50 49 47 56 60 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 27 31 37 39 31 28 26 15 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 17 53 51 63 117 124 144 166 118 127 86 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 34 58 69 66 24 25 51 36 26 40 21 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -17 -27 -29 -46 -61 -63 -34 -47 -28 2 50 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 49 21 136 211 174 41 -3 3 92 436 817 1167 1454 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.4 36.7 38.3 39.9 43.4 46.3 49.0 51.8 54.8 57.2 59.0 60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.3 75.8 74.4 72.5 70.5 66.3 62.4 58.4 54.2 49.8 45.1 40.2 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 20 22 23 22 19 19 20 19 17 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 14 CX,CY: 7/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -30. -40. -48. -55. -60. -65. -69. -70. -71. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -18. -20. -21. -19. -15. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 15. 6. 2. -1. -17. -21. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. -1. -12. -21. -38. -50. -57. -75. -83. -94. -97.-100.-102.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 34.0 77.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 590.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 9( 27) 4( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 88 87 84 73 43 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 83 80 69 39 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 77 66 36 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 61 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 55 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 65 35 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 88 88 79 73 69 39 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS