* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 74 78 83 81 84 76 61 52 36 27 21 18 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 74 78 83 81 84 59 40 34 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 64 69 74 80 83 74 58 43 32 34 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 9 9 23 47 54 37 27 23 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 2 0 2 -2 5 11 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 335 334 300 294 252 205 222 210 185 192 216 234 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.2 24.9 18.5 13.2 16.3 11.5 8.2 7.2 6.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 151 150 142 108 79 70 74 68 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 129 130 124 96 73 68 69 65 64 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.0 -50.1 -49.4 -49.5 -50.1 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.4 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 13 12 7 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 48 47 47 44 35 42 55 58 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 24 27 29 38 37 28 26 19 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -24 -18 -9 1 38 70 124 129 153 181 126 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 48 39 41 37 61 26 59 55 41 22 21 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 0 7 4 -8 -19 -44 -42 -16 7 -4 6 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 208 161 127 92 47 229 154 8 28 -18 76 280 554 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.7 32.5 33.6 34.6 37.4 40.5 43.7 46.7 49.4 51.9 54.2 56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 78.7 78.2 77.1 76.0 72.8 69.0 65.1 61.3 57.7 54.5 52.0 49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 14 16 20 21 21 19 17 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 30 22 16 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -24. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -10. -12. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 20. 19. 8. 4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 23. 21. 24. 16. 1. -8. -24. -33. -39. -42. -45. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.8 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.84 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 27.6% 18.1% 13.1% 9.9% 13.1% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 20.3% 10.9% 7.5% 3.3% 8.4% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 15.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.4% 16.9% 10.0% 7.2% 4.4% 7.2% 3.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 9( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 69 74 78 83 81 84 59 40 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 64 69 73 78 76 79 54 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 65 70 68 71 46 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 59 57 60 35 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT