* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 77 82 89 93 92 81 68 55 47 32 27 24 22 18 V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 77 82 89 93 92 67 53 36 32 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 65 71 76 81 87 85 67 45 39 31 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 6 7 9 30 43 49 36 22 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 3 1 1 1 6 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 330 332 311 315 207 201 209 199 179 185 189 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 26.8 24.7 14.3 13.8 13.1 10.2 7.6 8.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 141 139 137 125 107 71 70 69 67 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 120 119 119 110 95 68 67 66 65 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.1 -52.4 -51.0 -50.2 -48.6 -49.2 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 1.5 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 13 12 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 48 50 52 48 46 41 44 52 56 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 22 23 26 31 36 35 31 26 25 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -48 -29 -12 -4 43 42 109 117 153 177 148 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 12 44 49 46 66 67 39 44 48 35 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -2 3 7 -23 -50 -51 -36 -21 0 9 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 212 157 138 89 131 258 197 -43 89 -18 220 531 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.0 31.7 32.7 33.6 36.0 38.9 42.0 45.0 47.7 50.1 52.1 54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.0 78.7 77.9 77.1 74.3 70.7 66.8 63.4 60.5 56.8 52.4 48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 12 14 19 21 20 18 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 30 30 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -0. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 19. 13. 7. 4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 29. 33. 32. 21. 8. -5. -13. -28. -33. -36. -38. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.2 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.84 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 33.0% 23.3% 18.0% 11.1% 20.3% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 22.0% 14.1% 10.6% 3.4% 14.2% 2.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.1% 2.2% 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 19.1% 12.8% 9.9% 4.8% 11.5% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 8( 12) 11( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 71 77 82 89 93 92 67 53 36 32 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 65 71 76 83 87 86 61 47 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 67 74 78 77 52 38 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 62 66 65 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT