* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 11 12 10 10 6 7 11 12 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 0 2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 325 334 329 328 330 301 270 242 226 208 190 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.5 23.7 22.6 20.8 20.9 21.1 20.9 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 106 102 99 95 98 87 68 69 72 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 66 64 62 58 54 51 48 46 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 18 16 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 53 58 67 66 69 66 45 11 -5 -19 -23 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 32 27 25 8 -4 -5 -7 -7 -3 0 -11 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 670 658 647 643 640 667 742 796 851 939 1067 1223 1350 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.5 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.2 116.3 116.6 116.8 117.6 118.8 120.2 121.7 123.2 124.9 126.7 128.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -28. -33. -38. -44. -53. -55. -58. -60. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 116.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##