* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 37 35 31 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 37 35 31 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 36 33 29 26 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 4 2 2 5 3 4 6 4 8 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -6 -4 -4 -2 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 278 325 14 10 331 320 276 256 245 218 184 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.1 23.6 23.8 23.0 21.5 20.7 21.8 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 109 107 105 101 96 99 91 75 67 78 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 66 64 62 58 55 49 43 42 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 20 19 17 15 14 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 61 62 61 67 85 91 90 62 34 24 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 45 54 49 43 31 2 -6 -4 -3 -13 3 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 705 692 679 670 662 664 687 735 801 865 954 1081 1213 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.5 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 22.9 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.0 116.1 116.2 116.4 116.8 117.6 118.6 119.9 121.4 122.8 124.3 125.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -22. -27. -33. -38. -39. -40. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.4 115.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.9% 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 7.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##