* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 41 39 35 32 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 41 39 35 32 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 41 40 37 33 30 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 2 1 4 4 6 5 6 5 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 2 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 153 218 287 316 67 1 356 333 307 316 231 233 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.3 24.8 24.1 23.9 23.9 23.4 23.0 22.9 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 117 114 112 108 101 99 100 95 91 90 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 66 66 64 59 57 51 49 47 48 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 21 21 20 18 17 15 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 56 58 60 60 69 79 81 64 52 36 25 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 25 42 48 55 24 1 0 -2 4 -12 -21 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 704 693 683 678 673 674 701 752 829 928 1024 1158 1288 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 115.9 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.7 117.4 118.3 119.4 120.9 122.5 124.3 126.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -29. -30. -29. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.3 115.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 5.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 8.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##