* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 61 69 76 85 91 92 91 82 69 63 60 57 53 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 58 61 69 76 85 91 92 91 82 60 37 31 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 63 71 79 84 82 74 59 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 10 12 10 14 12 24 37 51 37 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 4 3 -5 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 340 328 332 323 311 289 256 207 215 211 179 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.1 25.5 21.0 16.3 13.3 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 139 138 141 142 128 112 86 73 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 119 117 117 121 123 112 99 78 69 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -50.8 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 14 15 11 12 6 5 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 50 50 52 54 54 53 48 47 40 42 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 17 17 20 21 25 29 32 37 36 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -44 -34 -35 -40 -34 -5 20 8 75 134 167 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 8 19 32 27 35 49 62 61 39 19 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 19 -5 -11 -23 -27 -17 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 113 122 134 151 181 232 153 122 332 251 162 87 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.1 28.5 29.0 29.5 31.0 32.9 35.2 37.7 40.5 43.0 45.3 47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.3 79.3 79.2 79.1 78.5 76.9 74.5 71.3 67.4 63.4 59.4 55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 7 10 13 17 19 20 19 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 23 20 20 32 26 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -5. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 27. 25. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 24. 31. 40. 46. 47. 46. 37. 24. 18. 15. 12. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.7 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.4% 10.7% 8.4% 7.5% 11.4% 13.6% 17.1% Logistic: 4.1% 14.7% 7.6% 8.0% 3.5% 27.3% 33.1% 8.3% Bayesian: 8.0% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 11.0% 6.3% 5.5% 3.7% 13.1% 16.1% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 54 58 61 69 76 85 91 92 91 82 60 37 31 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 55 63 70 79 85 86 85 76 54 31 25 24 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 56 63 72 78 79 78 69 47 24 18 17 17 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 46 53 62 68 69 68 59 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT