* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 32 30 29 28 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 32 30 29 28 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 3 2 4 9 10 8 4 3 9 9 12 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 179 149 212 290 295 318 326 320 303 264 232 246 219 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.0 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.5 23.3 22.5 22.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 119 115 113 109 104 101 101 101 100 97 95 86 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 68 68 67 66 62 59 54 55 53 52 44 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 20 18 18 17 17 16 14 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 44 50 55 62 71 62 61 50 36 31 24 18 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 43 45 30 14 10 14 6 -2 -11 -18 -13 -21 -20 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 0 3 -1 5 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 724 729 726 723 721 730 763 807 857 905 999 1085 1216 1356 1511 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.0 21.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.8 116.1 116.3 116.5 116.9 117.5 118.2 119.0 119.8 121.1 122.7 124.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 115.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##