* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 41 40 38 38 35 33 29 26 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 41 40 38 38 35 33 29 26 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 41 40 38 36 34 31 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 0 3 4 1 3 9 11 7 9 5 5 10 14 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -3 0 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 1 1 5 4 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 234 165 148 184 272 319 312 298 297 268 236 227 226 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.4 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.7 23.7 23.1 22.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 122 119 117 113 109 104 101 102 101 98 99 93 90 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 71 68 68 66 64 61 57 53 54 51 46 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 19 19 18 17 18 17 17 15 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 30 32 32 38 55 49 57 49 55 54 36 33 17 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 49 26 33 23 29 12 7 4 6 -14 -18 -17 -24 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 1 1 5 3 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 714 718 724 722 722 728 745 770 816 884 985 1066 1191 1371 1552 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.8 20.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.4 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.6 117.0 117.6 118.4 119.4 120.7 122.2 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 6 7 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -19. -25. -29. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 11.2% 5.4% 1.6% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 11.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##