* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052014 06/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 50 54 56 56 56 56 58 61 64 66 69 70 71 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 50 54 56 56 56 56 58 61 64 66 69 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 46 46 45 44 43 44 47 51 57 62 66 69 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 24 25 23 26 23 21 16 9 5 4 6 4 7 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -6 -6 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 349 347 356 350 343 344 340 348 341 351 322 297 262 283 234 239 239 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 156 154 153 152 151 151 150 148 149 147 140 137 134 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 80 82 80 80 78 79 79 81 81 76 71 68 63 62 62 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -33 -37 -43 -36 -4 -21 -10 -39 -45 -47 -42 -43 -30 -20 -15 -2 200 MB DIV 59 63 70 35 52 67 35 18 1 11 1 19 4 11 12 10 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 2 0 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 137 134 138 142 147 167 182 201 222 276 363 466 555 609 622 652 714 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.4 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.4 105.6 106.0 106.7 107.7 108.9 110.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 34 33 31 29 27 24 22 18 14 15 17 11 6 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. 16. 19. 21. 24. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.3 104.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052014 ELIDA 06/30/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.4% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052014 ELIDA 06/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##