* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042014 06/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 51 51 51 48 47 46 45 41 38 35 32 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 51 51 51 48 47 46 45 41 38 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 36 35 34 33 32 30 26 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 6 7 4 4 3 4 6 6 8 5 6 4 6 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -5 -5 -2 -2 0 0 2 1 1 2 4 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 73 77 107 117 109 57 74 49 8 359 332 306 293 258 219 184 200 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 142 137 135 129 121 117 114 115 113 111 110 113 115 113 110 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 75 76 70 66 63 61 61 56 53 52 50 51 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 16 17 15 16 15 15 14 16 15 16 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 49 59 72 54 55 56 57 58 61 62 63 52 48 35 22 200 MB DIV 65 85 77 58 56 39 3 14 -9 -23 4 0 4 -15 -7 -23 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -3 -3 -5 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 748 742 756 775 802 852 891 910 943 985 1022 1075 1138 1227 1319 1402 1471 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.5 113.6 114.3 115.1 116.3 117.2 117.8 118.3 118.9 119.4 120.1 120.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 5 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 14 8 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 21. 21. 18. 17. 16. 15. 11. 8. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.85 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 31.0% 20.6% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 26.4% 10.9% 5.5% 3.0% 8.5% 5.8% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 19.3% 10.6% 6.9% 1.0% 2.8% 7.6% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##