* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 30 27 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 34 30 27 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 33 28 24 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 18 23 24 24 26 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 1 0 8 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 264 266 279 294 285 272 247 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.5 23.9 23.1 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 119 116 113 106 99 91 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 45 43 40 38 32 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -8 -8 -24 -29 -43 -42 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -30 -26 -26 -32 -19 -31 -30 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 417 424 439 461 487 483 489 507 543 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.6 113.1 113.6 114.1 115.1 115.9 116.6 117.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -17. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -17. -23. -31. -39. -48. -52. -56. -58. -60. -62. -63. -66. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.7 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##