* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 74 70 61 51 42 34 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 74 70 61 51 42 34 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 69 64 55 47 39 31 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 11 14 13 17 22 21 23 22 15 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 2 0 0 2 0 6 3 3 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 249 230 244 259 272 279 272 261 262 233 218 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 135 132 129 122 117 112 108 103 99 97 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 54 49 47 41 40 32 29 22 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 17 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 6 2 -5 -4 -17 -23 -41 -42 -73 -76 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 20 3 9 -7 -24 -28 -21 -40 -33 -14 -9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 1 2 -1 -1 0 0 2 1 1 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 470 444 426 416 413 439 474 503 519 549 588 629 671 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.0 111.4 111.8 112.2 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.4 116.2 116.8 117.3 117.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. -35. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -10. -19. -29. -38. -46. -55. -61. -67. -72. -74. -75. -77. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.7 110.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 547.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 -1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 16.3% 13.8% 10.1% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.6% 4.8% 3.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##