* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 128 127 124 119 105 92 79 70 61 52 43 37 32 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 125 128 127 124 119 105 92 79 70 61 52 43 37 32 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 125 125 122 116 111 97 83 71 62 56 49 42 35 28 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 0 3 8 6 9 6 7 11 16 18 19 22 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 4 4 1 5 0 0 -1 1 3 4 3 1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 323 10 240 257 240 254 272 270 244 255 263 281 301 332 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.3 24.3 24.2 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 155 149 139 134 129 124 123 120 115 105 104 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 60 57 55 51 42 39 35 33 29 28 24 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 18 19 20 20 19 18 17 15 13 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 20 18 16 15 1 -8 2 -8 -23 -36 -46 -56 -63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 37 -11 22 36 30 17 -23 -26 -19 -6 -29 -30 -28 -47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -5 -3 -1 -4 3 -5 1 0 4 2 6 2 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 399 421 451 485 522 472 461 476 508 555 621 689 808 987 1171 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.2 108.8 109.5 110.1 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.5 114.2 115.2 116.4 118.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 5 7 9 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 15 11 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -24. -34. -44. -52. -58. -63. -66. -69. -73. -76. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -15. -16. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -6. -20. -33. -46. -55. -64. -73. -81. -88. -93. -99. -99. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.7 107.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 589.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.25 -1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 16.7% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 3.8% 4.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 7.0% 6.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##