* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 27 25 23 21 18 16 15 16 15 16 18 20 23 27 29 V (KT) LAND 35 30 27 25 23 21 18 16 15 16 15 16 18 20 23 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 29 25 22 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 16 15 11 6 6 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -4 -5 -3 -6 -4 4 7 3 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 181 178 172 181 172 148 122 103 99 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 136 136 134 134 133 133 131 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 58 56 49 45 41 39 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 51 51 48 51 59 50 59 57 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 22 16 31 48 24 31 8 -1 12 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 708 653 598 550 503 464 481 531 602 677 738 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.3 16.9 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 110.7 110.2 109.8 109.4 109.1 109.3 109.8 110.4 111.1 111.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 0 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -19. -20. -19. -17. -15. -12. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 111.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 15.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##