* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 47 46 42 40 39 41 43 42 44 43 45 47 49 51 V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 47 46 42 40 39 41 43 42 44 43 45 47 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 46 43 37 34 32 31 31 29 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 15 14 8 8 7 8 4 12 11 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 5 -1 -2 -1 0 6 11 8 7 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 185 185 196 193 157 144 130 112 123 117 110 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 137 136 132 131 129 128 131 132 132 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 62 59 55 48 42 40 40 39 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 21 18 18 16 17 17 16 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 51 55 52 60 52 49 61 55 63 57 58 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 51 58 41 32 8 46 16 -4 4 -11 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 2 0 -1 0 0 0 2 5 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 825 758 693 623 554 447 425 436 477 540 624 708 776 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.7 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.6 17.1 16.6 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.7 111.2 110.7 110.2 109.7 108.9 108.8 109.0 109.4 109.9 110.5 111.1 111.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 3 1 1 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -13. -15. -16. -14. -12. -13. -11. -12. -10. -8. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.6 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.2% 13.9% 9.6% 6.5% 8.5% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.5% 4.8% 3.3% 2.2% 2.9% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##