* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 76 71 68 58 54 50 49 47 45 44 44 42 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 90 82 76 71 68 58 54 50 49 47 45 44 44 42 41 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 90 81 74 67 61 50 43 39 36 36 36 35 34 31 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 17 17 12 10 7 3 3 7 10 13 6 6 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 8 2 8 6 1 2 0 2 4 4 9 9 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 210 203 209 210 197 246 208 145 135 126 143 141 119 94 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 133 133 131 129 124 121 125 127 126 125 123 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 69 68 66 61 54 47 43 36 38 36 34 31 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 22 24 20 20 18 16 14 13 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 41 37 38 48 48 49 38 44 44 49 44 33 26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 81 67 65 56 17 -1 17 -7 -5 6 15 7 -2 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 2 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 938 896 854 810 766 666 582 524 513 537 576 609 656 695 747 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.2 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.3 18.1 17.8 17.6 17.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.4 112.2 112.0 111.7 111.1 110.7 110.4 110.4 110.6 111.0 111.5 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 10 7 6 4 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -5. -2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -19. -22. -32. -36. -40. -41. -43. -44. -46. -46. -48. -49. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.8 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##