* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 96 91 84 73 63 59 53 50 50 49 49 48 46 45 41 V (KT) LAND 105 101 96 91 84 73 63 59 53 50 50 49 49 48 46 45 41 V (KT) LGEM 105 102 95 87 80 67 56 47 42 41 41 41 42 41 40 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 19 15 15 7 10 6 2 3 4 11 10 11 8 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 5 8 5 17 3 0 3 3 10 5 6 3 4 8 8 SHEAR DIR 192 204 210 201 210 187 219 232 252 116 74 88 101 102 135 152 153 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 137 136 134 133 132 129 127 131 132 130 126 123 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 68 67 63 56 52 48 43 41 37 38 37 37 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 24 22 24 22 22 18 16 15 13 12 11 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 43 46 42 44 42 54 37 41 39 46 44 41 30 34 20 200 MB DIV 76 70 71 56 59 52 -4 10 23 19 -13 11 -1 -8 -1 -4 -10 700-850 TADV 1 4 1 1 0 5 3 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 948 928 900 862 825 748 672 596 542 525 540 602 642 658 674 685 698 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.3 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.1 111.9 111.4 110.9 110.4 110.0 109.8 109.9 110.4 111.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 0 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 15 12 10 7 5 5 3 4 4 5 4 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -17. -25. -31. -36. -40. -43. -44. -46. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -11. -10. -7. -4. 1. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. 1. -2. -2. -8. -11. -12. -14. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -21. -32. -42. -46. -52. -55. -55. -56. -56. -57. -59. -60. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.5 112.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##