* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 115 106 99 92 75 66 62 60 57 52 50 48 47 45 45 43 V (KT) LAND 125 115 106 99 92 75 66 62 60 57 52 50 48 47 45 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 125 116 108 100 92 76 63 53 45 40 37 36 37 39 39 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 24 25 21 26 22 16 12 8 8 3 10 12 12 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -2 2 3 4 2 3 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 191 190 191 183 166 200 203 208 209 216 172 153 134 149 145 121 119 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 151 149 144 138 133 131 131 131 130 129 129 130 129 127 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -52.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 70 73 70 70 68 67 64 57 54 50 48 44 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 22 23 24 20 20 19 18 17 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 46 51 52 45 41 33 45 48 58 48 47 45 39 41 32 200 MB DIV 61 41 63 107 111 102 99 58 71 20 12 10 5 29 21 10 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 1 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 1035 1009 985 955 926 872 798 709 639 591 553 529 507 502 513 552 579 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.7 111.8 111.7 111.6 111.4 111.2 110.9 110.8 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 37 33 29 20 11 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -23. -34. -43. -50. -56. -60. -61. -62. -64. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -20. -26. -24. -18. -11. -6. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -0. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -26. -33. -50. -59. -63. -65. -68. -73. -75. -77. -78. -80. -80. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 12.4 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##