* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 132 135 131 123 107 86 75 70 65 61 54 45 41 38 37 35 V (KT) LAND 120 132 135 131 123 107 86 75 70 65 61 54 45 41 38 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 120 131 132 126 119 104 87 72 60 51 45 41 37 36 36 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 17 17 19 26 18 16 16 16 14 15 11 17 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 5 6 9 9 8 4 1 -3 -1 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 167 169 185 170 172 171 202 204 183 188 170 168 161 132 125 107 113 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 156 155 153 148 146 143 140 138 137 136 136 135 135 134 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 70 71 71 70 69 67 62 56 50 45 42 38 38 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 24 23 25 22 23 23 21 21 20 16 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 41 48 44 46 42 42 40 39 55 46 43 35 38 29 37 200 MB DIV 89 73 56 59 46 102 80 101 91 63 33 22 31 24 31 17 40 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 4 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1064 1056 1048 1033 1018 977 933 892 850 809 751 676 624 585 570 570 564 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.0 111.1 111.2 111.4 111.6 111.7 111.7 111.7 111.6 111.3 110.8 110.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 40 40 40 37 30 24 19 14 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -18. -27. -35. -41. -46. -49. -50. -51. -53. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -12. -7. -3. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 14. 18. 18. 15. 9. 2. -5. -9. -8. -9. -11. -14. -14. -13. -13. -11. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. 1. 1. -2. -1. -3. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 12. 15. 11. 3. -13. -34. -45. -50. -55. -59. -66. -75. -79. -82. -83. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 11.6 110.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 50.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 9.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 74% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 73.8% 27.3% 21.0% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 65.1% 22.6% 17.0% 14.3% 9.0% 4.5% 2.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 69.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 69.5% 17.1% 12.7% 11.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##