* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/21/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 54 46 34 28 25 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 54 46 34 28 25 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 55 54 52 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 20 30 48 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 7 12 8 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 235 286 282 284 295 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.1 17.8 17.2 16.8 16.5 17.0 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 78 76 74 73 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 73 71 70 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.9 -58.7 -58.5 -58.3 -58.5 -59.4 -59.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 46 46 46 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 21 22 21 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 89 79 85 68 30 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 18 25 17 -5 -28 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 6 14 21 41 10 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1708 1784 1524 1319 1114 813 522 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.6 41.2 41.8 42.1 42.3 41.9 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.6 30.6 27.6 25.1 22.7 18.9 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 23 21 18 16 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 28 CX,CY: 25/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -24. -26. -29. -32. -35. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -25. -29. -34. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -9. -21. -27. -30. -32. -35. -37. -39. -42. -43. -44. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 40.6 33.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 55 54 46 34 28 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 53 45 33 27 24 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 42 30 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 36 24 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT