* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/20/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 55 55 56 49 37 34 31 27 25 25 24 23 22 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 54 55 55 56 49 37 34 31 27 25 25 24 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 52 51 51 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 27 27 20 17 11 27 46 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 0 0 8 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 201 206 195 188 236 278 275 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.5 21.8 20.8 20.5 18.8 17.3 15.8 16.2 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 91 87 86 80 76 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 85 81 80 76 72 67 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -57.9 -58.1 -58.4 -59.1 -58.5 -58.2 -58.1 -58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 41 40 40 40 44 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 23 23 22 24 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 101 91 72 95 113 65 37 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 43 47 54 50 8 17 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -9 -29 -17 0 44 63 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1334 1285 1289 1365 1485 1823 1437 1182 940 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.4 37.6 38.8 39.9 41.7 43.1 44.1 45.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.0 46.2 43.4 40.3 37.3 31.3 26.8 23.7 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 26 26 26 25 21 15 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 20 CX,CY: 17/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -28. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -10. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. -1. -13. -16. -19. -23. -25. -25. -26. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 35.1 49.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.14 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 11.8% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 54 55 55 56 49 37 34 31 27 25 25 24 23 22 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 52 52 53 46 34 31 28 24 22 22 21 20 19 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 48 49 42 30 27 24 20 18 18 17 16 15 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 41 42 35 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT