* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 46 39 31 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 46 39 31 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 46 38 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 23 18 19 24 33 38 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 13 12 9 10 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 241 232 216 210 227 236 237 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.1 25.2 25.1 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 123 119 115 111 111 110 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 56 55 47 38 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 18 16 14 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 12 3 6 0 25 33 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 35 29 20 28 34 25 25 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 6 7 2 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 982 937 892 835 779 680 606 572 543 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.5 20.0 20.2 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.0 116.9 116.7 116.5 116.2 115.6 115.1 114.8 114.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -31. -32. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -18. -23. -24. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -24. -29. -39. -51. -63. -73. -76. -79. -81. -83. -84. -85. -88. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.0 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##