* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/28/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 84 77 69 49 35 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 84 77 69 49 35 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 83 75 65 47 33 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 27 28 26 19 25 27 22 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 14 13 8 8 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 234 240 243 248 231 211 238 239 225 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 126 125 125 122 117 114 112 112 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 63 62 57 51 42 35 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 23 21 16 15 12 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 18 27 26 26 9 33 52 58 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 55 60 58 48 15 49 34 23 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 5 4 4 3 7 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1087 1045 1005 974 945 878 829 809 799 799 799 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 116.8 116.6 116.4 116.4 116.4 116.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -26. -30. -34. -37. -39. -41. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -12. -18. -23. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -13. -21. -40. -55. -68. -78. -85. -89. -91. -92. -94. -95. -96. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.6 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##