* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 68 70 71 69 58 53 44 37 32 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 68 70 71 69 58 53 44 37 32 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 66 68 68 62 51 41 32 26 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 8 10 19 19 14 14 15 17 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 2 1 4 9 11 8 6 2 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 125 138 162 161 227 229 230 192 194 180 188 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 145 143 143 142 135 130 128 128 131 131 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 60 64 66 66 65 63 62 59 57 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 20 20 16 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 6 7 15 14 9 -3 0 0 35 58 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 35 32 39 61 44 57 9 54 56 40 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 1 4 6 4 4 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1164 1181 1205 1204 1207 1163 1098 1028 951 897 868 870 867 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.2 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.8 115.7 116.4 117.0 117.5 117.6 117.3 116.8 116.3 115.8 115.6 115.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 9 10 11 13 7 4 3 3 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 0. 0. -5. -9. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 14. 3. -2. -11. -18. -23. -27. -27. -27. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.1 113.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 32.4% 24.7% 17.2% 11.9% 14.8% 13.1% 8.8% Logistic: 27.3% 35.1% 19.5% 14.8% 2.0% 9.9% 3.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 6.6% 21.4% 6.3% 3.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.3% 29.6% 16.8% 11.7% 4.8% 8.3% 5.7% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##