* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 65 69 76 78 74 69 65 63 58 49 43 38 29 21 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 65 69 76 78 74 69 65 63 58 49 43 38 29 21 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 60 62 68 73 72 70 67 64 56 46 37 30 24 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 8 10 6 8 6 12 12 15 15 21 25 30 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -4 -5 -5 0 -1 0 -2 0 3 7 12 7 3 6 0 SHEAR DIR 197 195 161 160 165 168 182 165 189 211 204 213 194 207 224 241 244 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.0 27.7 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 153 152 153 144 140 144 143 138 132 127 124 119 112 105 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 52 54 56 58 61 64 68 65 64 50 38 28 21 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 14 16 15 15 17 18 18 14 12 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -6 -3 2 13 26 28 26 24 23 37 68 85 69 65 62 200 MB DIV 54 45 32 32 42 19 28 -7 19 55 57 47 11 -19 -18 -16 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 4 6 5 0 2 -4 LAND (KM) 571 640 718 815 917 1108 1211 1324 1386 1390 1344 1290 1230 1198 1200 1237 1278 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.4 111.5 113.8 115.8 117.7 119.1 120.0 120.4 120.5 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 20 15 14 9 7 12 12 10 5 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 26. 28. 24. 19. 15. 13. 8. -1. -7. -12. -21. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 12.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 9.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.4% 65.2% 51.9% 37.5% 26.3% 26.3% 43.4% 12.8% Logistic: 63.0% 73.9% 66.8% 59.8% 51.9% 49.0% 12.8% 12.6% Bayesian: 15.8% 60.1% 29.1% 14.4% 7.2% 12.8% 1.9% 0.0% Consensus: 34.0% 66.4% 49.2% 37.2% 28.5% 29.3% 19.4% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##