* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 33 29 25 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 33 29 25 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 33 31 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 31 35 35 31 14 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 347 1 9 9 38 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 25.8 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 120 119 118 111 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 101 101 100 95 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 38 34 32 34 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -99 -119 -129 -155 -171 -167 -167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -99 -35 -23 -57 -53 -29 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 5 7 10 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1941 1922 1904 1871 1839 1768 1697 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.8 31.8 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 48.7 48.2 47.7 47.2 45.9 44.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 4 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -26. -28. -28. -28. -29. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.5 49.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -53.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 36 35 33 29 25 22 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 34 30 26 23 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 33 29 25 22 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT