* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/23/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 63 66 69 70 74 76 77 79 78 76 75 70 66 59 V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 63 66 69 70 74 76 77 79 78 76 75 70 66 59 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 59 58 57 58 59 62 65 69 69 67 62 55 46 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 15 10 8 8 5 10 7 9 4 11 14 17 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -1 1 2 0 0 -2 -2 1 1 1 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 229 243 260 283 275 217 193 165 174 156 160 196 153 178 178 190 222 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 155 157 160 157 153 150 150 151 148 139 135 130 123 113 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 64 62 58 59 56 53 51 53 54 62 64 60 56 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 16 17 19 20 21 23 23 24 24 22 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 3 0 -13 -7 11 12 32 43 52 48 48 31 11 -10 -40 200 MB DIV 32 22 48 49 25 45 33 27 20 -5 12 22 -16 8 3 7 -15 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 0 0 3 4 2 0 0 1 2 0 2 5 6 5 LAND (KM) 158 195 232 256 291 384 502 603 746 878 927 942 933 898 838 770 708 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.2 102.7 103.3 103.9 105.3 106.9 108.5 110.2 111.8 113.4 114.9 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 16 19 29 25 25 26 16 14 14 7 5 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 19. 17. 16. 15. 11. 9. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. 1. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 14. 13. 11. 10. 5. 1. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.1 101.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 21.4% 16.4% 11.9% 9.0% 13.1% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.1% 4.6% 4.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##