* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 69 68 69 72 73 76 80 80 81 81 84 83 83 79 73 V (KT) LAND 75 71 69 68 69 72 73 76 80 80 81 81 84 83 83 79 73 V (KT) LGEM 75 68 64 62 61 60 60 62 65 66 66 67 70 72 70 62 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 14 14 10 8 10 9 7 2 7 11 12 16 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 3 1 2 1 1 -1 -3 -2 0 8 10 SHEAR DIR 163 173 197 225 243 245 207 187 213 203 138 175 210 170 187 187 198 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 155 156 159 160 157 154 149 148 147 145 142 136 126 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 59 59 59 54 55 51 50 50 53 56 64 67 65 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 10 10 11 13 15 17 19 20 21 21 25 25 28 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 11 9 7 -9 0 15 12 32 33 46 42 37 41 21 5 200 MB DIV 70 81 62 30 57 33 52 23 16 7 1 0 38 10 48 3 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 -1 2 1 0 2 1 5 9 LAND (KM) 140 161 183 212 223 276 371 482 571 685 796 831 820 795 754 715 668 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.0 102.2 102.6 103.0 104.0 105.4 106.9 108.4 109.9 111.3 112.5 113.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 17 17 20 26 23 25 25 17 13 11 9 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 15. 14. 15. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -2. 1. 5. 5. 6. 6. 9. 8. 8. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.3 101.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##