* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/22/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 39 37 30 24 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 39 37 30 24 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 37 33 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 16 15 23 35 34 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 1 1 1 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 285 299 287 309 328 327 330 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.2 25.5 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 123 123 122 121 115 109 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 106 104 104 103 102 98 93 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.9 -55.7 -55.8 -55.4 -55.2 -54.7 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 46 45 46 46 44 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -104 -92 -84 -77 -76 -85 -102 -145 -133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 29 6 -3 -24 -5 -8 -26 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 7 6 4 14 12 23 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1684 1753 1822 1857 1839 1786 1722 1651 1599 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.8 31.6 32.6 33.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.2 53.6 52.9 52.2 51.5 50.1 48.6 47.0 45.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 5 5 4 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -5. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.2 54.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.3% 6.4% 4.7% 3.8% 5.5% 4.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 40 39 37 30 24 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 37 35 28 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 33 31 24 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 25 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT