* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/21/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 110 111 108 103 97 85 78 74 77 76 79 79 80 79 77 77 V (KT) LAND 105 110 111 108 103 97 85 78 74 77 76 79 79 80 79 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 105 110 111 108 104 98 90 84 81 80 80 80 80 77 73 68 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 13 9 11 12 10 11 7 6 8 8 10 12 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -1 6 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 161 163 180 205 200 176 223 236 253 218 197 184 213 194 185 188 205 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 154 154 157 159 160 163 162 156 150 147 146 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 9 10 8 10 7 10 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 57 57 56 51 50 49 46 47 46 48 55 59 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 12 10 11 10 10 10 13 13 16 17 20 20 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 47 45 28 19 18 5 2 35 30 25 23 24 14 16 0 200 MB DIV 69 70 41 21 31 63 13 17 12 44 5 9 -12 -6 -24 -9 -23 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 -2 2 2 0 1 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 180 171 162 158 153 166 179 227 300 392 486 614 728 816 859 913 978 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.5 103.0 103.8 104.8 106.0 107.5 109.2 110.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 2 3 4 5 7 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 22 27 27 24 29 22 17 14 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -28. -28. -28. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -2. -2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 3. -2. -8. -20. -27. -31. -28. -29. -26. -26. -25. -26. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.2 102.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 527.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.32 -2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.5% 26.2% 21.8% 18.7% 12.4% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.7% 8.5% 9.7% 7.4% 13.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 17.5% 13.3% 3.9% 2.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.9% 16.0% 11.8% 9.5% 9.3% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##