* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/15/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 25 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 7 10 17 22 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 164 252 275 259 254 248 250 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 131 125 120 111 107 105 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 44 44 41 37 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 0 -11 -12 -16 -36 -29 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -1 0 6 1 -7 -19 -30 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 7 4 5 6 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 952 953 961 981 1006 1044 1091 1153 1208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.4 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.7 118.3 119.0 119.6 120.6 121.3 122.0 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 15. 14. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -15. -20. -22. -23. -23. -24. -23. -22. -21. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 10.6% 10.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.9% 3.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##